Monday, August 31, 2009

Insider selling at all time highs

from bloomberg the other day, insider selling is at extreme levels compared to buying

Friday, August 28, 2009

New Piece by Martin Armstrong - the Biggest Bull in the room?

Okay maybe he's not the biggest Bull in the room but he is certainly predicting the dow to 30,000 by 2015! his economic confidence model has been dead on for the past 20 yrs in key turning points of markets. he's looking for a test of the march 2009 lows by 2011 and then it will be off like a rocket.

the only reason i can see a 30,000 dow would be a massive devaluation in the dollar, we're seeing that at this moment.... for the dow to drop back to the march 2009 lows and the the dollar to continue its devaluation the two would have to become positively correlated insted of the negitive correlation they currently have.

great read none the less

Will the Dow Reach 30,000 by 2015? 0809

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Secular Bear Markets

Great Chart from Ritholtz's Blog showing the four stages of secular bear markets.... compiled by Morgan Stanley Europe. this is a great chart showing because it doesnt just include the U.S. bear markets it is compiled from bear markets around the world at various times.... history tends to repeat itself in one form or another

something to consider when thinking about where we are in the cycle

Investor Intelligence bullish and bearish levels

from a contrainian perspective one might see this as a topping formation in this rally... what happens when everyone decides to "take some money off the table" all at once. Its not that fact of short sellers that make a market correction in order, its the lack of buying in the market

Monday, August 24, 2009

Possible good Entry Point on Natural Gas

for the past Month or 2 i believe i have seen Multiple set-up on great Entry points in Natural Gas only to have it break down a week or two later to new lows. it seems today was another good possible entry for playing the very Volatile commodity on a multi year chart from slopeofhope Tim points out on a 17yr Log chart the potential support, yes that support could easily be broken and we travel all the way down to $2 or so

as Bespoke points out the ratio of Oil to Natural Gas has never been at such extreme Ratios in the past 20 yrs.... could be a sign of Oil either breaking down or a large Rally in Natural gas. i'm thinking its the latter which will take place

a Brief Look at the Monetary situation in the US

Total Federal Debt.... looks like it has gone Parabolic. can things go straight up forever? or does the old saying what goes up must come down come into effect at some point? well certainly not in the next decade according to Tresurary running a $9 TRILLION defict in the next 10 yrs

well it'll be okay as long as the reciept's of tax income comming in are increasing just as fast, oooh wait.... those have nearly fallin off a cliff

As i would expect the amount of debt as a percentage of disposable income would be decreasing by sane rational individuals

now that is a truly scary chart

Friday, August 21, 2009

Gold looking posed to POP

Look at the ascending Triangle in the GLD, the heavily traded Dec GC contract looks even better but the GLD will do for this purpose.
we're looking more and more likely for a major breakout come Sept or Oct.. just getting positioned correctly now will pay off big

S&P 500 high broke to new highs for 2009

all that dollar devaluation has lead to the S&P 500 reaching new highs for 2009, what will happen when the dollar reachs 72? will the S&P be back at 1200 and unemployment at 10.5%??

Look out Below!

well its about time that dollar started to accelerate it's decline, this should be confirmed when we breach that 77.43 level and then from there 76, then 72 and possibly in the 60's is in order.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Warren Buffet talking about the demise of the USD

Looks like the Nail is in the coffin for the Buck, it's only a matter of time until the general public accpects what is comming.... a much lower standard of living in the US

Buffett: Debt Mountain Could Turn America Into A Banana Republic (BRK)
Joe Weisenthal|Aug. 19, 2009, 6:48 AM|38
PrintTags: Economy, Economy, Debt, Money, Federal Reserve, U.S. Government, Warren Buffett

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett, a supporter of Barack Obama and an indirect beneficiary of the bailouts, writes in a NYT op-ed to warn about the crushing mountain of debt the US government is now building up.

After laying out the staggering numbers, he concludes thusly:

I want to emphasize that there is nothing evil or destructive in an increase in debt that is proportional to an increase in income or assets. As the resources of individuals, corporations and countries grow, each can handle more debt. The United States remains by far the most prosperous country on earth, and its debt-carrying capacity will grow in the future just as it has in the past.

But it was a wise man who said, “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” We don’t want our country to evolve into the banana-republic economy described by Keynes.

Our immediate problem is to get our country back on its feet and flourishing — “whatever it takes” still makes sense. Once recovery is gained, however, Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line with our growth in resources.

Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.

U.S. Defict

When does the Math state the U.S. Income can no longer cover the Expenditures? what will it take to get these two back in correlation... i believe its beyond the point of no return

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

3 bear markets

taking a look at the differences in 3 bear markets including the current one

First Posting

Examining the correlation between the S&P 500 and the USDX