Wednesday, February 16, 2011

What is Dr. Copper telling us?

Copper is now almost 20 cents off its all time high in a matter of 2 days.. this is a very bearish indicator for stocks. the pattern is likely an indicator to reduce long stock holdings, or get short if you haven't already.


look for the S&P 500 to retrace back to its 50 day moving avg, and perhaps even a test through it. if the 1261 level is broken for the Egypt riot lows it can easily head to 1180. for now lets keep the 1270 to 1290 area in mind.


look for the Canadian Dollar to fall vs. USD, the recent selloff in Crude hasn't yet affected the USDCAD but it could rise to the 1.02 are in coming weeks good for 300 pips

Thursday, January 13, 2011

intra-day Cheat sheet on Gold

just take a look at this intra-day chart of gold showing 1000 days of data averaged together, absolutely incredible to see the daily similarities.
obviously this pattern doesn't happen every day but you can use this as a guide to time entries and exits with some statistical evidence.

Below i've included a chart of todays intraday gold price, note the perfectly correlated tops and bottoms with the 1000 day average chart

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Selling Half of Longs at 1219.25

I'm selling Half of my ES position at 1219.50, i'm still looking for 1250 but i think its a good idea to scale back after that two day monster rally.

i see as i've just sold the market exploded higher to 1221.75.... i might have been a little too quick in selling

Dec 2nd Morning market Preview

what looked to be a pretty calm after hours session with a rise to 1212 on the ES has turned volatile due to some less than encouraging Unemployment Claims at 436K vs expected 425K as well as the ECB President and Vice President speaking.

S&P 500

the ES was very well defended at 1202, which should hold for the day... if not look for 1196.25. market still looks very bullish.

it appears to have made a reversal candle on the 15min chart.


Gold held up well as the ECB President and Vice President were speaking, the 1385 zone held up as support instead of resistance. a close above 1396 will be very bullish. look to buy pullbacks today


the EURUSD has been on a wild ride, up over 100 pips last night only to fall over 100 pips as the ECB leaders began to speak. providing a great area to get long.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Dec1st Market Recap

The strength of the morning continued like a freight train today. there was no retrace besides a mire 2 or 3 pts on the ES. Long was the way to go today.

S&P 500

taking a look at our Big picture chart on the ES we can see it sliced right though the line drawn yesterday.

the S&P was in a pretty tight trading range all day beside the 8 pt ramp when a US official said the US will back a larger European Stability fund Via the IMF shooting the ES up 8 pts. look for a pull back overnight to the 1200 area


Oil was the Big mover today, which was up over $3 from the lows yesterday. this was one of the best performing commodities. looking for some overnight profit taking before resuming an uptrend


Gold was relatively quiet today considering the USD fell nearly 1%, it did rally after this mornings spot where i said it would find some support but looks to close the day flat. i would have preferred a close decidedly above 1388 to confirm the strong up trend.


The Euro looks to have a little deadcat bounce forming, i would like to see this continue to at least around 1.35 before some hard selling would come in again.
keeping a close an on the EURO here... it should dictate the move for equities.

Lets see how the after hours trading goes as Asia reacts to a huge rally

Wed Dec 1st Morning Market Preview

its the First of the Month and it looks like some good data overnight combined with a weak euro has sent futures flying, were seeing green across the board this morning pre-market.

S&P 500

The ES has made a massive move from the low put in a triple bottom yesterday at 1176.50 last night. who ever made that large sell yesterday at the close was severely wrong in their timing. The ES is breaking through the R2 at the moment, the R3 lies at 1211. not too sure if it can make it there today but in the next two days it should tag that level. If i didnt already have a long position i wouldnt buy here, i would not short here either.... i'd look for a pullback mid morning to get a position.


the extreme EURO weakness has subsided for the time being, this is the major boast to the futures. moving a solid 150 pips off the lows last night. current broken through the R1, is should see the R2 level at 1.3225 in the next day or two. I wouldn't be looking to go Long right at the level, i would be waiting for a pullback to at least 1.3075


Gold saw some strength overnight but not as much as i would have though given the USD has fallen by almost 1%. it did hit my initial target of 1398, where it found some resistance. it should fall to around the 1385 level before seeing some buyers.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Market Recap of Nov 30th

Today was one of those days that even though the index's were weak negative for most of the day and closed decidedly negative, if you were invested in the right equities you could have had a superb day. being long Gold and silver mining stocks paid off well today as well as being invested in the metals themselves.

S&P 500
lets first take a look at the big picture view of the S&P 500, using a 314 min bar chart dating back until about end of September... its showing somewhat of a bullflag pattern. If this continues to hold we could easily see 1250 in the near future on the breakout. keeping a stop just below the 1170 level

today was a mildly choppy day following the euro weakness overnight, the es found support in the S1 zone at 1174.75 heading right back into the pivot on some strong than expected Chicago PMI and Consumer confidence data. this was a pretty low risk play due to the fact the weakness was purely caused by EURUSD weakness and not anything in the U.S. markets.

the one outlying event of the day was the close, between 3:58 and 4:00 pm 200,000 contracts were sold, not sure if this is a front running event pending some announcement overnight in Europe or merely a poorly executed trade. tomorrow will tell


seems as if the contagion is spreading through Europe like wildfire, talk of Portugal's gov debt being downgraded today. Europe's problems arn't getting better anytime soon, i do however think it might have a deadcat bounce in the next day or two, purely due to the fact its crashing the bollinger band on the daily and getting a little oversold. i wont be buying this until a clear reversal is formed. the Euro should find support in the 1.28 to 1.27 area.

Gold's strength kept up today in spite of a stronger USDX and general market weakness. the precious metal's all had large gains today. Reports of a Chinese fund of funds for gold being created, which would allow the Chinese better access to investing in Gold helped the buying today. Gold looks to tag the R3 level of around $1398 and should soon look for a close at all time highs. it might see some overnight weakness but any weakness should be bought